Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Box Office Discussion: "Frozen" Planet

In one of the more surprising results I've seen lately, 8 of the Top 10 films over the very commercial, very franchise-attracting long Thanksgiving weekend were original, non-franchise films.  Of course, the two franchise entries that bookended the Top 10 will make far more than any of those other 8, but hey, beggars can't be choosers.


Of course, the #1 film by far is very much a franchise entry.  Frozen II crushed the competition, taking in $125 million over the five-day weekend.  That brings its 10-day total to $288.5 million.  By comparison, the first Frozen had "only" made $134.3 million by the end of its second wide weekend.  By further comparison, Frozen II has already topped the final domestic grosses of every Disney Thanksgiving film released between Frozen and Frozen II (Big Hero 6, The Good Dinosaur, Moana, Coco, Ralph Breaks the Internet).  Right now, it's running about even with Finding Dory, well ahead of Toy Story 4, but behind Incredibles II.  It remains to be seen how Frozen navigates December, but it's probably a good bet to top Dory to become the second-highest-grossing animated film of all time.

Frozen wasn't hogging all the cold cash, though.  Opening far better than expected was the murder mystery Knives Out, which rode near-unanimous raves and a strong cast (including Daniel Craig, Christopher Plummer, Jamie Lee Curtis, Chris Evans, and Don Johnson, who between this and Watchmen is having a hell of a year) to a whopping $41.4 5-day total.  Strong word-of-mouth should help Knives climb north of $100 million, and if the film can hang on until Christmas week, it could possibly go as high as $150 million.

Roaring into 3rd is Ford v Ferrari, which drove off with another $19 million over the long weekend.  It currently stands at $81 million, and should top $100 million sometime in the next couple of weeks.  In 4th is A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, which took in $17.3 million to bring its ten-day total to $34.3 million.  The century mark seems unlikely for Neighborhood, but again, strong word of mouth through December could give the title a boost.

Opening well at #5 was the drama Queen & Slim, which also over-performed, taking in $16 million.  The obvious point of comparison is last year's The Hate U Give, which also revolved around a confrontation between a white cop and young African-American man where someone ends up dead.  Hate finished with $29.7 million, despite being based on a popular YA novel and being rated PG-13.  Queen is likely to top that, despite being an original story and being rated R. 

The numbers drop off pretty fast after this, but still, these films deserve commendation for still being in the Top 10 while much more hyped franchise titles like Terminator: Dark Fate, Doctor Sleep, and Charlie's Angels are already long gone.  At 6th, 21 Bridges is still a disappointment, but after a $7.7 million long weekend, it's not looking as disappointing, as its gross is now at $19.2 million after ten days.  Playing With Fire, in 7th, managed to get enough family audiences away from Frozen to earn $6.1 million, now stands at $39.2 million.  A final gross over $10 million seems likely.

In 8th, Midway continued to do a decent job of attracting dads and granddads more interested in fighting planes than racecars, bringing in another $5.7 million for a current gross of $50.2 million.  Last Christmas hung on for 9th, taking in $2.9 million for $31.7 million.

Clinging onto the Top 10 for at least one more weekend is Joker, which continues its stunningly successful run with $2.8 million for a total gross of $330.5 million, or less than $5 million away from passing Aquaman, an amount it should easily come up with well before the end of its turn. 

The first weekend of December is usually a dead zone, and this year is no exception, with the only wide release being the animated Playmobil, whose purpose for existence seems to start and stop with the success of The Lego Movie.  This one won't be challenging Frozen.  It might have trouble challenging Playing With Fire.  We'll see how much the animated comedy is able to play with this weekend.

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