Wednesday, November 27, 2019
Box Office Discussion: "Frozen" Assets
Frozen II burned up the box office, while Beautiful Day could have used more neighbors, and 21 Bridges ran into roadblocks.
As expected, Frozen II melted away its competition, bursting out of the gate with a remarkable $130.3 million opening. That puts it at #3 for all time animated openings, behind only Finding Dory and Incredibles II, at at #5 for November openings, behind three Twilights and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Just how much it could ultimately make is an open question. That it will earn at least $300 million is a given, and it will almost certainly also pass $400 million. Indeed, with largely an open playing field until at least mid-December, it should at least equal Toy Story 4's $434 million at a minimum. Outside of Playmobil in two weeks, which shouldn't be any sort of threat, there isn't another animated movie opening this holiday season until Spies in Disguise on Christmas Day. At the very least, with both this and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker almost certain to exceed the final gross of Spider-Man: Far From Home, it's pretty much up to Jumanji: The Next Level to keep 2019's Top 6 to be a clean sweep for Disney.
Coming in a very distant second is Ford v Ferrari, which lost a surprisingly large amount of its opening weekend business. It made $15.7 million in its second weekend for a 10-day total of $57.7 million. It is still likely to make over $100 million, especially if it has a strong Thanksgiving weekend performance, but might not get far past that.
Opening in third is A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, the drama about the relationship between Mr. Rogers and a cynical reporter. Day's opening was a mild disappointment at $13.3 million. With the excellent reviews, this one should have good word-of-mouth, which will likely give it some decent legs going forward.
Disappointing in 4th is the cop thriller 21 Bridges, which could only manage $9.3 million, despite starring Chadwick Boseman. Unfortunately, like a lot of MCU stars, his popularity appears to be largely limited to MCU movies. With mixed reviews and an R rating, this is probably not going to factor into many families' weekend moviegoing plans.
Rounding out the Top 5 is Midway, which pulled in another $4.6 million for a total gross of $43.1 million. It should pass $50 million in the next couple of weeks. In sixth, family comedy Playing With Fire burned up another $4.5 million for a total of $31.5 million. This looks to be heading to around $40 million total.
Having, surprisingly enough, the best hold in the Top 10 is The Good Liar, which took in $3.4 million for a ten-day total of $11.8 million. This one could make it to $20 million, but is likely to come up short. Meanwhile, having the worst hold, not surprisingly enough, is the disastrous reboot of Charlie's Angels, which is making Doctor Sleep and Terminator: Dark Fate look like smashes in comparison. The actioner brought in only $3.2 million for a ten-day total of $14 million, or about what was expected to be the worst case scenario for the opening weekend.
In ninth, Last Christmas won't be lasting until Christmas, as it took in $3.1 million for a total of $27.9 million under the tree. Rounding out the Top 10, Joker spent what will likely be its final weekend on the chart earning $2.8 million for an outstanding $326.9 million.
Frozen II will win the weekend again, but two new titles are out wide today in hopes of picking up some of the holiday box office. Knives Out is a good old-fashioned whodunit, with Daniel Craig as an eccentric detective trying to figure out which member of a wealthy, dysfunctional family knocked off patriarch Christopher Plummer. Among the suspects are Chris Evans, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Michael Shannon. This one probably owes its existence to the success of Murder on the Orient Express two years ago, which also had a strong ensemble of well-known character actors as the various potential murderers. That film opened to nearly $30 million. With stiffer competion and a title that isn't nearly as well-known, I'd be surprsed if Knives Out opened that big, but we'll see. Meanwhile, the drama Queen & Slim stars Oscar nominee Daniel Kaluuya and Jodie Turner-Smith as two people whose first date turns horrific when a traffic stop escalates into tragedy. This one seems likely to attract a primarily African-American audience, which could sink the film or turn it into a sleeper hit. I'd bet on the latter.
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