After three failed reboots, the thinking went, they had finally gotten the latest Terminator reboot correct. Not only was Schwarzenegger back, but so was Linda Hamilton and James Cameron (only writing and producing, but still, that's more involvement than he had with Rise of the Machines, Salvation, and Genisys). Finally, there would be a sequel worthy of the first two entries in the series.
Well, Judgement Day is here, and Terminator: Dark Fate met a fate much darker than anyone could have imagined. The film opened to $29 million, or barely half of what the most optimistic predictions were suggesting. To put that in prospective, Genisys earned $27 million over its first weekend in 2015. And even that's deceiving, because Genisys opened on a Wednesday, which would dilute its Friday-Sunday numbers, and its opening Saturday was the 4th of July, usually a relatively weak box office day. So, for all intents and purposes, Dark Fate actually opened worse than this franchise's last franchise killer. How Dark Fate performs from here is questionable. On paper, Frozen II, which is assuredly not going after the same audience, is the only guaranteed blockbuster of November, which gives Dark Fate some room for decent legs. But with Midway, Doctor Sleep, and Charlie's Angels providing near-direct competition in the coming weeks, there's a very good chance that Dark Fate's dark fate might be a gross lower than Genisys's $89.8 final.
Continuing its impressive run, Joker stayed in second with $13.5 million, bringing its total to $299.2 million. At this point, it seems likely to slip past the final gross of Suicide Squad, and will likely finish near, if not above Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice and Aquaman. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil also held up decently, slipped to third with $13.1 million. Its total stands at $85.2 million, and it will likely finish somewhere between $110 and $120 million.
Exceeding expectations, the biopic Harriet, starring potential Oscar nominee Cynthia Erivo as Harriet Tubman, opened to $11.7 million. With strong word-of-mouth and no other African-American-led movies opening until 21 Bridges arrives on the 22nd, Harriet could end up as a sleeper hit, with potential grosses of up to $50 million.
Even with Halloween past and a new animated movie in the marketplace, The Addams Family continued its solid run, taking in another $8.3 million for a gross of $85.1 million. The passing of Halloween didn't seem to affect Zombieland: Double Tap much, either, as it picked up $7.4 million for a total of $59.4 million, which is just over a million behind where Zombieland was after its third weekend.
For a horror movie released right before Halloween, Countdown had an extremely impressive hold for the first weekend of November, falling a mere 35% to $5.8 million. That gives it a 10-day total of $17.7 million. Countdown looks to be heading to between $25 and $30 million.
Not holding so well is police actioner Black and Blue, which fell a more conventional 51% to $4.1 million. That gives it a 10-day total of $15.5 million. It looks to be heading to $20 to $25 million.
Opening slightly better than expected in 9th is Edward Norton's neo-noir Motherless Brooklyn. The lavish-looking period drama took in $3.5 million, amid what looks to be a dump release. Unless this gets strong word of mouth, this one looks to finish with less than $10 million.
At least it outperformed the weekend's final wide release, the animated Arctic Dogs. The lightly advertised animated romp could only muster $2.9 million, which puts it nicely between The Goldfinch and Jexi in terms of disastrous openings of 2019. The flick, which manages to boast a "I wouldn't want to be in the same room as them" voice cast of Jeremy Renner, James Franco, and Alec Baldwin, seems destined to also finish below $10 million, putting it in the company of last year's dog flops Dog Days, A.X.L. and Sgt. Stubby.
Just below the Top 10, Parasite and Jojo Rabbit expanded their theater count and saw their grosses nicely jump, though Parasite might be looking at its peak. Meanwhile, The Lighthouse, which did unexpectedly strong business last weekend, saw its grosses decline, despite adding nearly 400 theaters, suggesting that negative word-of-mouth is beginning to get around.
Four new movies arrive this weekend, none of which look likely to be potential breakouts. The biggest opening is Doctor Sleep, the adaption of Stephen King's bestselling sequel to The Shining, about a now-grownup Danny Torrance, and his battles with an evil cult that likes to stalk people with the "shine". The movie version, logically enough, looks to be a sequel to Stanley Kubrick's adaption of The Shining rather than King's novel, as its advertising leans heavily on a promised return to the Overlook Hotel. Ewan McGregor plays Danny. While Doctor Sleep has the best chance of wining the weekend (albet with a gross of under $30 million), it will have competition from Midway, which appears to be Roland Emmerich's answer to Dunkirk (and which has attracted zero Oscar buzz, despite being a lavish WWII period piece), Last Christmas, a romcom starring Emila Clarke and Henry Golding (and directed by Paul Feig and written by Emma Thompson, who also co-stars), and the family comedy Playing With Fire, for which I'm hoping John Cena, Keegan-Michael Key, and Judy Greer got nice paychecks. We'll see if any of them can overcome soft expectations and deliver a solid win next weekend.
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