Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Box Office Discussion: "Evil" Woman

2014's Maleficent was a surprise hit for Disney.  It grossed $241.4 million and generated some genuine Oscar talk for Angelina Jolie.  And then, it more or less faded into irrelevance.  That's why it was a surprise when Disney decided to go ahead with a very expensive sequel five years later.



Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is by no means the disaster that Alice Through the Looking Glass, a film that ultimately made less in its entire run than Alice in Wonderland made its opening weekend, was.  But its still hard to overlook the rather large drop-off between Maleficent's $69.4 million and the new film's $37 million first weekend gross.  Evil should be able to pull in over $100 million by the end of its run.   But given that it is easily the most expensive film of the fall, its going to have to do extremely well overseas in order to justify the cost.

Joker continues to make solid money as it laughs its way to $29.3 million to bring its total to $247.3 million.  At this point, it is already the 9th-highest-grossing R-rated film ever, and since it should top $300 million in the next few weeks, it should finish no worse than the 6th-highest R-rated film.  I'm not sure if it has the $80 million left in its tank to surpass current #5 Deadpool 2 and current #4 It, but it might be close.

Opening decently in third is Zombieland: Double Tap, the latest many-years-later sequel to hit theaters.  Opening almost one decade after the first film, Double Tap ended up just barely outgrossing the first film's opening weekend as it took in $26.8 million.  Word of mouth may help, but with only one pre-Halloween weekend left, and major holiday movies beginning to open in two weeks, it seems likely that part 2 will finish somewhat below the first film's $75.6 million final.

The Addams Family held up relatively well in its second weekend, grossing $16.3 million for a ten-day total of $57.1 million.  $100 million is doable, but it is likely going to be close.

Gemini Man did not hold up well at all, as it fell to $8.3 million for a ten-day gross of $36.3 million.  Will Smith^2 is likely to just barely creep past $50 million.  Smith continues to struggle, as he still hasn't had a hit not based on pre-sold material since Hancock over 11 years ago now.

In 6th, Abominable, which this week became the least likely movie of the year to turn out to be extremely controversial, took in $3.6 million to bring its disappointing total to $53.9 million.  Downton Abbey brought in $3.1 million (which, under current exchange rates, translates to 2.4 million pounds) for a total of $88.6 million (or 68.8 million pounds).  Judy has peaked, as it is beginning to lose theaters, but still took in $2.1 million for a total gross of $19.1 million.  In the olden days, Judy would probably get a re-release around the time Oscar nominations are announced, but by this January, the film will almost certainly be on DVD.

Despite early optimism based on the reviews and word-of-mouth, Hustlers has turned out not to be all that leggy.  Still, the film passed $100 million this weekend, as its $2 million brought its total to $101.9 million.  It: Chapter Two begins to wrap up a somewhat disappointing run with $1.5 million, for a total of $209.6 million.

Right outside the Top 10, Parasite came within a couple hundred thousand of passing It to crash the top 10 (and was able to slip past the second weekend of flop comedy Jexi, which landed in 12th), despite being in Korean and playing in only 33 theaters.  Assuming it hits more theaters this weekend, expect it to rise up and grab one of the lower spots.  Farther down the chart saw stellar openings for two possible Oscar contenders, the oddball drama The Lighthouse and the Nazi comedy Jojo Rabbit.  Lighthouse is probably too weird to be anything close to a mainstream hit, but Rabbit, could do well when it goes wide in the coming weeks.

Three new films open this weekend, but none of them seem strong enough to challenge the top trio as studios clear the deck ahead of November and the holiday movie season.  Trying to make some quick bucks from Halloween audiences, Countdown is a horror/thriller about a woman who discovers, via an app, that she has only three days left to live.  Black and Blue is a cop drama about an officer (Naomie Harris) who realizes that the killers she captured on film are corrupt cops.  Finally, the long-delayed The Current War is a historical drama about the battle between Thomas Edison (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Westinghouse (Michael Shannon) as to whose system of electrical delivery would become the prevailing standard (hint: the big New York electrical company is called ConEd, not ConWest).  The best any of them can realistically hope for is fourth, and maybe even 5th, depending on how well The Addams Family holds up.  We'll see which film emerges on top in the middle next weekend.

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